Russia is not learning from past failures and is still splitting its efforts across several geographical areas as opposed to concentrating for a single decisive effort in Donbas. Putin’s determination to attack all across the line, in fact, tells us that his aims go beyond Donbas. As President Trump has observed, “he wants to take all of it,” meaning all of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s defenses have successfully prevented significant new Russian offensives elsewhere, particularly along the northern border and in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainians are waging a battlefield drone strike campaign targeting Russian logistics and manpower concentrations farther from the frontlines, constraining advances and denying mechanized maneuver.