The Russian military command has displayed a clear pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort that aims to influence US decision-making about ongoing peace negotiations. These Kremlin claims aim to spread the false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and to convince Ukraine and the West that Ukraine should accept Russia’s demands now out of fear of future Russian offensives or breakthroughs.

Kupyansk has become a particular point of neuralgia for the Russian military command, likely due to the fear that the battlefield realities in the area will undermine the narratives about Russia’s military prowess that Putin and senior Russian military commanders have been trying to spread.

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ISW assesses that Russian activities near the border are unlikely to be part of a new major offensive but rather are intended to support the Kremlin’s longstanding cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian battlefield victory as inevitable.

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Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

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Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military targets. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 16 that Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition depot of the Russian 76th VDV Division in occupied Prymorsk, Zaporizhia Oblast (roughly 92 kilometers behind the frontline).[100]