My impression of the russian military is that their strategy is to give the impression that they can keep going forever (which they obviously can’t), no matter the cost, in the hopes that Ukraine will fold before they themselves crack. With this in mind, I believe that russia will keep attacking at a high rate, even far past the tipping point. I don’t think we’re really going to see how depleted the russian army is before it suddenly can’t do anything anymore. That is, I think the collapse of the russian army will look a lot like the fall of a dictatorship: First slow and almost imperceptible, then sudden and total.
A few months ago I went to a talk by Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Russian opposition leader. One thing that really struck me was when he pointed out that something like the last 6 regime changes in Russia (except maybe one) happened in periods lasting only 3 days. So you woke up on a Monday to the current regime, and by Thursday that regime was history and a new one was in power. I keep hoping to see this hold true again sometime soon.
My impression of the russian military is that their strategy is to give the impression that they can keep going forever (which they obviously can’t), no matter the cost, in the hopes that Ukraine will fold before they themselves crack. With this in mind, I believe that russia will keep attacking at a high rate, even far past the tipping point. I don’t think we’re really going to see how depleted the russian army is before it suddenly can’t do anything anymore. That is, I think the collapse of the russian army will look a lot like the fall of a dictatorship: First slow and almost imperceptible, then sudden and total.
A few months ago I went to a talk by Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Russian opposition leader. One thing that really struck me was when he pointed out that something like the last 6 regime changes in Russia (except maybe one) happened in periods lasting only 3 days. So you woke up on a Monday to the current regime, and by Thursday that regime was history and a new one was in power. I keep hoping to see this hold true again sometime soon.
Unfortunately I have little hope the next will be better.
These comment is spot on