I know no one here is part of the Russian government, so I’m not expecting concrete answers here.
What I’m asking is simply what will happen if [well, when, at this point] The Ukraine ends up…falling, per se?
That’s a question in of itself really. Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses? Will there be a coup? Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a “taiwan-ified” state in the west?
Most likely.
Like, a pro-Russian one? Most unlikely.
Strategically speaking, Russia needs the most industrialized regions and the entire shoreline. Demilitarization of the rest too. Which way what remains of “independent” Ukraine leans doesn’t matter a lot at that point, only that it remains. But it might be better for Russia, if it’s westward, so that Russia doesn’t have to rebuild at least that. Neutral status on paper though.
I should clarify. That’s because the Russian government is clearly trying to do it “right”. SMO isn’t breaking international law, which is why there aren’t any sanctions, like, UN ones, only unilateral restrictions from individual countries(which are, ironically, illegal). Annexation of Ukraine wasn’t in the declared goals at any point. And leaving it be, albeit demilitarized, would be the final nail in the coffin of already ridiculous genocide allegations. Good for propaganda in a different way too. Independent Ukraine is yet another entity people in the West that have a good idea of what’s going on can point at as an example of NATO using up it’s supposes allies and leaving them the worse for wear, whereas annexing the entire thing just adds to the rUsSiAn ImPeRiAlIsT cOnQuErErS narrative, even if Ukraine asks for it till the end.
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Unilateral sanctions are definitely illegal.
As for the General Assembly voting to condemn Russia, they did so under extreme pressure from the West in 2022. The same goes for rulings by international institutions like the ICJ. All are vulnerable to threats, blackmail, political and media pressure. More recent UN votes have actually swung in favor of Russia. The global south is clearly on Russia’s side.
The fact remains that Russia’s intervention is legal according to article 51 of the UN charter pertaining to collective self-defense. Russia invoked this article when they accepted the call for aid from the newly recognized Donbass republics in 2022, which had the right to secede according to the internationally enshrined right of all people to self-determination, and which were clearly under attack by Ukrainian forces.
This is one-to-one NATO’s Kosovo playbook, except it was actually legitimate this time and not backed by false claims. The West calling Russia’s intervention illegal is tantamount to calling their own actions in Serbia illegal. The global south can see the hypocrisy.
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