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Cake day: October 22nd, 2025

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  • Do you really hear yourself when you type these words out? I really want to understand. Do you not see what the Democratic Party analysts are saying? People turned away from the Democrats because they were unconvincing. The Democrats did not present themselves as the realistic choice to the people who mattered. Again, new voters broke for the Republican Party for the first time. Why did they do that? Why did Harris not capture new voters? Third party voters did not change the outcome of the election, that is not what the data shows. Why are you even talking about them? Why did Harris fail to capture the “politically disengaged and ideologically heterodox, aka low-information voters” who decided to stay home? Those people didn’t even bother voting, they didn’t vote for third parties, the system failed them and they stayed home. From the Vox article [emphasis mine]:

    Taken together, all these figures paint a disconcerting picture for Democrats. The party has long wagered that time was on its side: Since America’s rising generations were heavily left-leaning — and the country was becoming more diverse by the year — it would become gradually easier for Democrats to assemble national majorities, even as the party bled support among non-college-educated white voters.

    And it’s true that Democrats still do better with young and nonwhite voters than with Americans as a whole. But the party’s advantage with those constituencies has been narrowing rapidly. Last year’s returns suggest that demographic churn isn’t quite the boon that many Democrats had hoped, and can be easily outweighed by other factors. Meanwhile, as blue states bleed population to red ones, Democrats are poised to have a much harder time winning Electoral College majorities after the 2030 census [but don’t forget, Trump won the popular vote in 2024 as well]. Given current trends, by 2032, a Democratic nominee who won every blue state — and added Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — would still lose the White House.

    How Democrats can arrest the rightward drift of young and nonwhite Americans — while broadening their geographic base of support — is up for debate. But pretending that the swing electorate does not exist, or that unreliable Democratic voters are all doctrinaire progressives, probably won’t help.

    I’m not sure what you’re arguing about at this point. The Democrats did not present themselves as the obvious choice. Voters did not see Democrats as the obvious choice. Democratic Analysts have shown, through their own analysis of millions of records and data points, that this election was lost do to a failure to capture demographics The Democrats have historically won. This is a failure of the party and their campaign, a failure of the message, and of the candidate.

    If you are not going to seek out why this failure happened, then you are doomed to continue to fail.





  • The data actually disproves the “people stayed home because they wanted something better” theory.

    According to Blue Rose Research (which conducted 26 million voter interviews), roughly 70% of the Democratic vote share drop was due to people changing their minds and voting for Trump, not staying home. Only 30% was due to turnout.

    Catalist (the Democratic party’s own data firm) found something even more damning: For the first time in their dataset, new voters broke for the Republican. Harris only won 48.5% of first-time voters. These weren’t leftists demanding a purity test-they were mostly young, diverse, and working-class people who decided Trump’s message on the economy resonated more.

    The voters who did stay home? They weren’t hardcore progressives. They were “politically disengaged and ideologically heterodox”, aka low-information voters who didn’t feel motivated by either candidate. That’s a persuasion failure!

    It was a campaign that failed to differentiate itself from Biden, chased Liz Cheney Republicans instead of union workers, and watched 79% of economy-first voters go to Trump.

    Harris lost because she couldn’t convince people she’d change anything. That’s on the campaign, not on voters for wanting “something better.”

    Vox had a whole write up on it: https://archive.is/20250602132021/https://www.vox.com/politics/414370/2024-election-results-exit-polls-catalist






  • “National attention on Minnesota has waned with the departure of Bovino and rhetoric by Homan that things are de-escalating,” the group noted, but recent data and reports from commuters in the field did not support those conclusions. Despite orders to the contrary, the group continued, “Agents continue to draw their weapons and deploy chemical agents against observers.”

    This is how things usually go, isn’t it? Some kind of false “change” is made, one that functionally changes nothing, like the Gaza “ceasefire” or in this case the departure of Bovino, and it acts as a kind of signal to the wider media that this “conflict” has ended. The media shifts focus, attention is moved elsewhere, and the events actually escalate.



  • Probably more likely talking around each other. The agreement is that Nazism needs to be scrubbed out everywhere. I disagree that “These aren’t US forces as long a the nazis are in control.” Unless you also agree that Nazis have always been in control of US forces. To put it another way, when I read your comment it read similar to “This isn’t what American is about!” which, it is what America is about, and has always been about. To put it one other way, Donald Trump didn’t suddenly make America a Nazi state, he just removed its mask. That’s all. From our genocidal expansion westward, to our system of slavery and then apartheid after, dropping two atomic weapons on civilian populations, to our genocide in Korea in the 40s, to our imperialist wars through the 90s and 2010s, to our proxy genocide in Palestine. This is just another footprint in our path as we tread across the earth.

    If you have a similar assessment, then we’re on the same page. If not, then we’re not on the same page.