Some interesting analysis, imv, particularly when it comes to the rise of Gen Z and the diversity within that generation. For example,
Every year, the electorate that made the old duopoly possible shrinks, and the electorate in which the Greens poll in the 30s grows. Over time, this should aid the Greens in the seats where progressive Gen Z concentrates, which is to say the inner urban seats they already contest and a widening ring of middle suburban seats with heavy renter and student populations. The generational tide is the strongest structural argument that the Greens’ long plateau eventually breaks upwards.
But even here, a qualifier is required, and it is an important one.
Gen Z is not only the most left-leaning generation in Australian history. It is also the most diverse. A very large share of this cohort are the children of migrants, or migrants themselves, and through migration alone that share will keep growing. The overseas born and second-generation component of Gen Z behaves differently from its Anglo and established counterpart. It leans left, but it leans Labor.
IMO Gen Z being mostly left is a myth. You get boomers who are left and young that are right. Assuming makes an ass out of you and me.
The truth is Aus has been a very wealthy and affluent country and there are still a lot(from all age ranges) looking to ‘conserve’ that hence the dominance of the liberals in the last 20 years. Shooting down shorten and that glimmer of progressiveness for a corporate sleeze Scott Morrison tells you everything about how a majority values. House prices and coal. That’s why the greens can’t get a foothold. I think greens have had some great policies in the last few years but I find people spout green values but vote the opposite.