Putin has said he wants Ukraine to drop its ambitions to join NATO, Russia to control the entirety of four Ukrainian regions it has claimed as its own, and the size of the Ukrainian army to be limited. Kyiv says those demands are tantamount to demanding its capitulation.
Well, if I recall correctly, the original terms at the beginning of the war were significantly more favourable: Ukraine could pursue EU membership with no pushback, No NATO, and I don’t even think Russia was going to absorb the eastern territories back then, just that they either had autonomy or whatever they wanted (maybe there were calls for more negotiations on that front but I cannot remember).
But this is what happens when you continue the war and even threaten to “make Russia small again” (Zelenskyy wore a shirt with that statement), the terms have changed after all this time, too much goodwill has been squandered. No way was Russia just going to take it on the chin and roll over. It makes me incredibly sad but what did anyone expect?
Edit: also, don’t those territories want to join Russia now? I believe initially they were only looking for autonomy, but after years of bombings and protection from Russia they’d rather be absorbed now. I could be entirely wrong of course.
This is the key question liberals have to answer. How is Ukraine better off after three years of war than it would’ve been if they took the deal two week in.
This war will go on forever, won’t it? I’ll die here.
I highly doubt the war can go past this year given the state of the AFU. The reality is that the west is running out of both manpower and weapons in Ukraine. The US will either make a deal with Russia or simply pull out the way they did in Afghanistan.
There could make a stand in the west, if/when the front collapses, which could make it last longer still but I guess if it gets to a collapse the more pro-war elements in Ukraine might just flee to the EU and start trouble there instead.
That’s what I’m expecting. The betrayal narrative has been picking up steam in Ukraine, and when the front collapses I think there will be a lot of backlash against Europe.
