Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
It’s pretty much certain Putin has more idea about how long than we do, and is on a clock of however long that is, yeah.
That being said, the big factor at the moment is Trump. Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance, and Putin thinks he might give him a more favourable deal somehow, so that’s incentive for both sides to wrap it up.
Once their mothballed armour runs out it seems pretty guaranteed, and there were reports of a surge in bankruptcies a bit ago.
I’d be surprised if it’s a full year. Some kind of treaty might come soon anyway, though.
Maybe the collapse is closer than we think and that’s where this sudden push to resolve the war is coming from.
It’s pretty much certain Putin has more idea about how long than we do, and is on a clock of however long that is, yeah.
That being said, the big factor at the moment is Trump. Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance, and Putin thinks he might give him a more favourable deal somehow, so that’s incentive for both sides to wrap it up.